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Home » Solar Energy » Solar power in China vs India
Solar power in China vs India
Firstly, I am not sure what is the basis for movement from current base of 250 GW to 1000 GW. If it is simply some CAGR based on last few eras growth, then it becomes just statistical prediction.
If somebody is trying to compare China ( growth of 350 GW between 2010 and 2013 ), there are stark differences:
1. China's growth was not just helped by govt policies. One of the main reasons as to why China became world's shop floor ( which necessitated ramping up in power production) was significant positive factors within eg: China produces 50%, 70%, 80 % and 80 % of global Nickel, Cobalt, Tungston and Molybdenum respectively ! These are the metals which feeds high technology- from aircraft to oil and gas to thermal power ( nickel costs 50 times that of steel!)
2. Besides, the climate is also conducive for power generation in China.....
Further, the residential demand ( which perhaps off-grid solar can meet) is only a small fraction ( even in in China it is less than 15 % )
So the bulk demand has to come from Industries; but unless other factors improve at the appropriate pace, the growth will be muted. Don't have to look elsewhere: Our dedicated freight corridors were planned in 2006 - where are we after 8 almost years?
Solar power In India is concentrated in Western parts. Till last year, we have just 2 GW of grid connected solar installed capacity.
Now reg nuclear power ; I have been part of an expert group trying to figure out transition technologies for India in medium term; one of the members is a former AERB Chairman; In his estimate, the recent projects are going to incur Rs 30- 40 Cr/ MW ( how, he has not explained). This translates to a direct cost of capital anywhere in the vicinity of Rs 5- 6/ kWh!
All said and done, the pace of growth India saw between 2005 - 2012 had been one of the highest in its history; u can already see the growth has suddenly come down threatening to go sub 5% levels. This will also have implications on electricity growth.
See just last fortnights' effect on electricity prices; After the 'populist' inspired reduction of tariff in Delhi, Maharashtra also reduced the tariff..... right or no, SOMEBODY has to pay! If as a society, half our population wants electricity below cost of generation, HOW ARE WE TO MOVE FROM 250 GW TO 1000 GW ? food OMG power for thought!
If somebody is trying to compare China ( growth of 350 GW between 2010 and 2013 ), there are stark differences:
1. China's growth was not just helped by govt policies. One of the main reasons as to why China became world's shop floor ( which necessitated ramping up in power production) was significant positive factors within eg: China produces 50%, 70%, 80 % and 80 % of global Nickel, Cobalt, Tungston and Molybdenum respectively ! These are the metals which feeds high technology- from aircraft to oil and gas to thermal power ( nickel costs 50 times that of steel!)
2. Besides, the climate is also conducive for power generation in China.....
Further, the residential demand ( which perhaps off-grid solar can meet) is only a small fraction ( even in in China it is less than 15 % )
So the bulk demand has to come from Industries; but unless other factors improve at the appropriate pace, the growth will be muted. Don't have to look elsewhere: Our dedicated freight corridors were planned in 2006 - where are we after 8 almost years?
Solar power In India is concentrated in Western parts. Till last year, we have just 2 GW of grid connected solar installed capacity.
Now reg nuclear power ; I have been part of an expert group trying to figure out transition technologies for India in medium term; one of the members is a former AERB Chairman; In his estimate, the recent projects are going to incur Rs 30- 40 Cr/ MW ( how, he has not explained). This translates to a direct cost of capital anywhere in the vicinity of Rs 5- 6/ kWh!
All said and done, the pace of growth India saw between 2005 - 2012 had been one of the highest in its history; u can already see the growth has suddenly come down threatening to go sub 5% levels. This will also have implications on electricity growth.
See just last fortnights' effect on electricity prices; After the 'populist' inspired reduction of tariff in Delhi, Maharashtra also reduced the tariff..... right or no, SOMEBODY has to pay! If as a society, half our population wants electricity below cost of generation, HOW ARE WE TO MOVE FROM 250 GW TO 1000 GW ? food OMG power for thought!