Category
- Products
-
- Solar Energy
- FAQ
- Solar Photovoltaic
- Contact us
Inverter manufacturer
buy@inverter.co tech@inverter.co
Home » Solar Energy » Hype and overselling in solar industry
Hype and overselling in solar industry
I think hype and overselling in the solar industry is the result of several factors and assumptions.
The assumption I would question first is the one that says: "if the cost of something gets low enough, everyone will automatically buy it." In my mind there is no guarantee that solar power will become mainstream when it costs approximately the same, or even less than conventional sources.
Here's why. Even with lower and lower cost per watt, solar power is missing two key elements -- product intangibles and a compelling reason to buy.
Take the example of the personal computer (PC). Not only did prices go down (and performance went up) but MANY other things helped make the PC a mainstream appliance. One of the biggest factors was the addition of IBM's backing and reputation to the desktop computing industry…anyone remember the so-called "IBM compatible PC" standard? IBM's blessing along with other "standards" such as the DOS operating system and the ISA/EISA bus (i.e. product intangibles) all combined to reduce the perceived risk of buying a PC.
But the most powerful factor in PC market development was a compelling application called the spreadsheet. Early spreadsheet software (Lotus 1-2-3 and Context MBA) running on the PC provided a quantum leap in capability over the existing ways of manipulating numbers…with adding machines, calculators, pens, pencils and sheets of paper.
In the solar industry, there are few if any risk-lowering product intangibles (who's the IBM of solar?) and the compelling "mainstream" application hasn't been identified yet. So when the cost of solar reaches grid parity, you'll essentially get the same thing you already get from a utility…electric power for the same price. There's no quantum leap in capability or extraordinary advantage above what a utility already offers. Plus, there's no need to install a bunch of complex equipment when power comes from the grid.
It's true that someday you might be able to point to the realization of greater environmental health or sustainability, but that's like selling green bananas. The promise that someday a green banana will turn yellow is not compelling enough.
The assumption I would question first is the one that says: "if the cost of something gets low enough, everyone will automatically buy it." In my mind there is no guarantee that solar power will become mainstream when it costs approximately the same, or even less than conventional sources.
Here's why. Even with lower and lower cost per watt, solar power is missing two key elements -- product intangibles and a compelling reason to buy.
Take the example of the personal computer (PC). Not only did prices go down (and performance went up) but MANY other things helped make the PC a mainstream appliance. One of the biggest factors was the addition of IBM's backing and reputation to the desktop computing industry…anyone remember the so-called "IBM compatible PC" standard? IBM's blessing along with other "standards" such as the DOS operating system and the ISA/EISA bus (i.e. product intangibles) all combined to reduce the perceived risk of buying a PC.
But the most powerful factor in PC market development was a compelling application called the spreadsheet. Early spreadsheet software (Lotus 1-2-3 and Context MBA) running on the PC provided a quantum leap in capability over the existing ways of manipulating numbers…with adding machines, calculators, pens, pencils and sheets of paper.
In the solar industry, there are few if any risk-lowering product intangibles (who's the IBM of solar?) and the compelling "mainstream" application hasn't been identified yet. So when the cost of solar reaches grid parity, you'll essentially get the same thing you already get from a utility…electric power for the same price. There's no quantum leap in capability or extraordinary advantage above what a utility already offers. Plus, there's no need to install a bunch of complex equipment when power comes from the grid.
It's true that someday you might be able to point to the realization of greater environmental health or sustainability, but that's like selling green bananas. The promise that someday a green banana will turn yellow is not compelling enough.
Killer apps for solar? How about an interactive 2-way grid balancing demand with distributed generation that allows you to avoid 'peak' charges from the utility? How about integration with intelligent monitoring of dynamic HVAC and other systems like Kill-A-Watt that allow you to automate your electric consumption without intervention? How about smart IP enabled houses including CCTV, entertainment and kitchen appliances you can control from your cell phone? How about micro inverter that generate native AC at the panel level and automatically signal you if they are out of wack How about a utility paying you more for your power than you spend to produce it? How about avoid carbon taxes? All these and more are in development. Are you familiar with the SunSpec Alliance? Their goal is to integrate solar reporting/management with demand side apps so the utility has infinite options in how they handle demand loads. These and many other innovations are on drawing boards as we speak. Check out Petra Solar who is putting 200,000 mini distrib. gen systems on power poles all over NJ. Sure, it will take years, but so did the PC revolution. When consumers look at energy production equipment as a necessity, just like they view cell phones, the utility will become a backup service, akin to anti-virus or offsite file storage. Either the utilities will figure out a way to monetize these inventions, integrating them into the house of the future, or they will become increasingly irrelevant, like mainframes. Nest pas?
Post a Comment:
You may also like:
