DIY solar PV system

With R&D and increased production EFFICIENCY (not necessarily capacity) silicon derivatives attain the paradigm shift known as Moore's Law = FUNCTION of your product doubles every 18 months while the price remains constant. Whether you are coaxing positive and negative ions out of silicon, or using it to run programs on your home PC, engineering of a raw commodity makes it possible. When the solar industry R&D efforts reach a critical mass, you will start to see "Moore's Law" price/performance improvements in energy production, just as you've seen in the computer industry. This means the race will go to the fastest, most flexible, market friendly adopters who will buy up or wait out their competitors. Remember how many PC brands there were only 5 years ago? Remember the 80's when PC makers fought for shelf space and mind share with expensive ads? The winners were those who had the funds to PRODUCE, MARKET and DISTRIBUTE most effectively. Used to be you had to go to a specialty 'computer store' and spend $7k for a PC. Now they are like wristwatches, with functionality going up and pricing going down or stabilized over time.

Same will happen with panel / rack / inverter manufacturers...the disparate products are evolving into a SYSTEM. Someday soon a DIY PV system will be purchased at Home Depot or WalMart and the mystery will be over. 3 or 4 'solar brands' will probably survive that have the financing, vision and market savvy to create a brand around 'plug & play' products and drive them through the retail channel. We are 2-3 years from solar systems you can buy in a kit and install in an hour. Perhaps 5-10% of the current players 'get it' and will survive commoditization, and those are the guys who've either gone public and have activist investors pushing them not just for technical innovation, but marketing and sales savvy.

I'm longing for the day when PV is like toothpaste, a matter of color, flavor and taste, more than a major economic decision.